Latex or raw rubber from rubber trees is used to produce natural rubber or India rubber. The global rubber market has a production of 12.43 million MT at present. The prediction of the global rubber market is that there will be an increase in production with the production reaching about 17 million MT by the end of 2022. According to the 2020 market intelligence report by Beroe, the global market for rubber is predicted to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% until 2023. The top manufacturers of natural rubber are Halcyon Agri, Southland Rubber, Von Bundit, Sri Tang Agro, and Thai Rubber Latex.
The major supply rubber markets are Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Thailand has a supply share of 37%, while Indonesia has a supply share of 27%, and Malaysia has a supply share of 6%. Thailand has a low supplier power when compared to Indonesia and Malaysia that both have a medium supplier power. On the other hand, when it comes to buyer power, Malaysia has a high buyer power whereas Thailand and Indonesia both have medium buyer power when compared to Malaysia. It has been predicted by Beroe that Thailand will supply more than 4.5 million MT of natural rubber by 2022 and the CAGR will be 4.5%.
As economies all over the world are getting better, so are disposable incomes. Many developing countries have better standards of living and this has subsequently led to an increase in the demand for automobiles. In order to meet the demand, the automobile sector has increased production which has led to an increase in demand for car tires. This means an increase in natural rubber demand. This can lead to an increase in natural rubber production in Thailand and Indonesia since they are the key suppliers. According to Beroe, the Malaysian rubber market will increase because of an increase in demand for latex products such as dipped goods, condoms, gloves, etc.
The production of automobiles which is directly related to a rise in natural rubber demand was seen in developed countries too such as the US. India and China are the two key emerging markets that are behind the tire demand growth and the production of tires is being shifted to low-production regions. It has been predicted that Asia will be one of the top suppliers of natural rubber. This is due to a larger yielding area in countries such as India, Thailand, and Malaysia. While Thailand is the biggest producer, domestic consumption is just 14%. However, it is still preferred by many countries for supplying as the quality of the rubber is good and the rubber market price is low in Thailand.
Malaysia has a high demand for latex. Malaysia imports from Thailand although Malaysia is a producer of rubber too. Other uses of natural rubber have a fair market share when compared to the major uses. The other factors that affect these products are operational costs and economies of scale among others. Due to tariffs and e-vehicles changes that occurred in the past, there was expected to be a slow recovery when it came to automobile demand. However, an increase in the demand for other uses of natural rubber will mean that the rubber market can improve and do better than the slump in demand that occurred in the past.
According to rubber market analysis by Beroe, the unpredictability of the prices of crude oil can have an impact on the rubber market. There is a likelihood of the US leading the rubber market in the future in North America. The next is likely to be Canada. Another market for natural rubber is Europe in which Germany will lead when it comes to the rubber market while France and the U.K. will follow close behind. The largest natural rubber market in the world will be the Asia Pacific with China taking the lead followed by India, Japan, and South Korea. Southeast Asia will lead in terms of production while there is a chance of Africa and the Middle East will compete too.
The rubber price future trends indicate that there will be more competition in the future. That is because of the new natural rubber market being established in various regions such as Cambodia and Ivory Coast. Beroe predicts that there can be a weak demand in the future which means TOCOCM market loss. Supply limitations can be one of the challenges which means the rubber market price won’t go too low in the future and are likely to remain stable after a point. This will happen by the end of 2020 because of the decline in plantations back in 2014 which means supply will get negatively affected.
